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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."